Japanese Pokémon Card Market Weekly (October 2026, Week 2)

Data as of: our market data updated 05:45 JST, October 11, 2026; posts on X from October 6 to October 12, 2026. Figures are reference prices from third-party sales, not our selling prices. Our views are for reference only and are not investment advice.

This week in brief

• PSA 10: 72 cards in the TOP100 show a positive 7-day change and 5 a negative one, against 24 and 47 a week earlier (October 4). Over 30 days, 92 of the 100 are down.
• Mint: 18 cards up over 7 days, 7 down and 75 at ±0.00%.
• Five cards entered the TOP100 and five left it.

The week in our data

The tables below list the TOP100 cards with the largest 7-day changes as of October 11. A single sale can move the latest price sharply: mint ミミッキュ (289/SM-P) was ¥600,000 on October 7, ¥333,333 on October 8 and ¥354,444 on October 9, while its PSA 10 price went from ¥2,900,000 on October 9 to ¥3,650,000 on October 10.

All five PSA 10 risers are still down over 30 days, by 18.94% to 24.67%. All five mint fallers had a positive 7-day PSA 10 change (+17.99% to +30.88%), so the two conditions moved in opposite directions. Four of the five PSA 10 fallers slipped by 2.27% or less. The median PSA 10 premium over mint across the TOP100 was 4.19 times on September 11, 3.57 times on October 4 and 4.33 times on October 11.

Four themes from posts on X

From the Japanese Pokémon card accounts on X that we follow, we picked posts from October 6 to October 12 about prices, restocks, grading and sales, and grouped them into four themes. Posts are summarized; follow each link for the original.

1. PSA 10 gains broaden

On X @shoukinopokeka posted on October 10 that the number of PSA 10 sales had grown for seven straight days, back to early-September levels. On October 7, @Zabi_pokeka reported PSA 10 copies of the ギラティナV SA back in the ¥300,000 range, and on October 9 wrote that the レックウザVMAX SA in PSA 10 had passed ¥1,000,000 again.

Our data PSA 10 for ギラティナV (s11 111/100) is ¥319,999 (+20.8% over 7 days), and the card rose from 52nd to 33rd in the TOP100. レックウザV (S7R 076/067) is ¥222,000 (+33.75%). Over 30 days, though, the two are -23.81% and -18.94%.

Our view We think PSA 10 gains spread to 72 cards because sales caught up with a recovery that posters on X had discussed first. Posts from October 7 reported rebounds in Rayquaza VMAX and Giratina V, and in our TOP100 on October 11 both lines show positive 7-day PSA 10 changes. One poster questioned the short rise in Giratina V (@cY4wItenbl95537), but with 72 of 100 cards up, we read this as broad buying of graded copies rather than a move in a few cards. Over 30 days, 92 cards are still down, so for collectors holding PSA 10 copies the decline has stopped but prices have not recovered. If fewer than half of this week’s 72 cards are up over 7 days on October 19, we will revise our view and treat the rise as temporary.

2. Restocks of 30th CELEBRATION and Storm Emeralda (M6)

On X @PokeGetInfoMain posted on October 8 that restocks of 30th CELEBRATION (M6a) and Storm Emeralda (M6) would start that day and continue into the weekend. On October 10, @ZeniKame_Pokeca reported that 30th CELEBRATION reprint cards were all rising, by 3.4% to 7.2%. On October 11, the same account posted that MUR cards in PSA 10 were falling across the board, with the メガレックウザex MUR down 5.7%.

Our data No 30th CELEBRATION card was in the TOP100 on October 11, so the set is not yet reflected in our market data. No M6 card appears in this week’s top-five tables of risers and fallers. The 30th CELEBRATION Card Set (9 types) is released on Friday, October 16, 2026.

Our view We see the restock that began on October 8 splitting 30th CELEBRATION and Storm Emeralda (M6). For 30th CELEBRATION, reprint cards rose and one post says Lugia held around ¥20,000 after the restock (@Zabi_pokeka); we think this is because anniversary demand is absorbing the extra supply. For M6, MUR prices in PSA 10 fell, which places the set at the stage where the restock cycle reaches graded premiums. No 30th CELEBRATION card is in our TOP100 yet, so this view rests on posts. Box buyers and submitters of M6 cards face different conditions. If posts keep reporting 30th CELEBRATION buyback prices below ¥20,000 within a week of the October 16 Card Set release, we will revise our view. We think 30th CELEBRATION is likely to absorb the restock, while M6 PSA 10 prices are likely to stay weak.

3. The PSA backlog and the premium

On X @ZeniKame_Pokeca posted on October 7, citing PSA’s official figures, that the grading backlog had fallen from 9 million cards on September 22 to 8.2 million on October 6, and gave under 5 million as its own marker for the low-cost plan to resume. The same day, @cY4wItenbl95537 wrote that this year’s returns from the low-cost plan would soon end.

Our data The median PSA 10 premium over mint in our TOP100 was 4.19 times on September 11, 3.57 times on October 4 and 4.33 times on October 11. For mint, 75 of 100 cards were at ±0.00% over 7 days.

Our view We think the median PSA 10 premium rose from 3.57 to 4.33 times in a week, above the 4.19 times of September 11, because buyers expect fewer new PSA 10 copies and are buying graded cards only. Mint prices did not move for 75 of 100 cards over 7 days; the rise came from PSA 10. According to posts, returns from the low-cost grading plan end this year and the backlog is still above the level one poster uses as a sign the plan could resume. Last week we called the move a repair; for the premium, we now see a reversal rather than a repair. For submitters, PSA 10 scarcity is supporting prices until new returns reach the market. If a resumption of the low-cost plan is announced by October 26, we think the premium is likely to narrow again.

4. Buying from overseas

On X @mix_choice25809 posted on October 12 that both raw mint and graded cards were selling fast, and that many people seemed to be finding mint copies in shops and sending them abroad. On October 11, @Zabi_pokeka reported that the Van Gogh Pikachu in PSA 10 had risen to ¥520,000.

Our data The English-language Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat (SVP EN 085) entered the TOP100 at 60th, with mint at ¥65,800 (+92.32% over 7 days) and PSA 10 at ¥480,000 (+5.64%). The promo ピカチュウ (001/S-P) also entered, at 81st.

Our view We think the English-language Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat entered our TOP100 with a 92.32% 7-day rise in mint because buying of mint copies for overseas is showing up in sales in Japan. A post describing people buying mint cards in shops and sending them abroad fits our data, where the top five mint risers include this card and the ピカチュウ promo (227/S-P). Promo cards cannot be restocked, which makes them an easy choice for overseas buyers, and for collectors prices are no longer set in Japan alone. The card’s mint price is still down 30.37% over 30 days, so this is a narrowing decline rather than a recovery to earlier highs. If the card drops out of the TOP100 by November 2, we will revise our view and treat the buying as temporary. We think overseas demand is likely to support Pikachu promos.

What to watch next week

• How many cards are up over 7 days in PSA 10 (72 this week) and the median PSA 10 premium (4.33 times this week)
• 30th CELEBRATION reprint card and buyback prices around the October 16 release of the Card Set
• PSA 10 prices for top Storm Emeralda (M6) cards, and any announcement on PSA’s low-cost grading plan

Our overall view

We see the Japanese-edition market this week at the stage of a rebound led by graded cards. PSA 10 gains spread to 72 cards over 7 days, and the median PSA 10 premium reached 4.33 times, above the 4.19 times of September 11. Mint, however, was flat for 75 cards over 7 days, and 92 of 100 PSA 10 prices are still down over 30 days, so price levels have not regained September’s. The main driver is the expected supply of graded cards. According to posts, returns from the low-cost grading plan end this year, and the expectation that fewer new PSA 10 copies will reach the market is drawing buyers to graded cards.

Over the next 2–4 weeks, we think PSA 10 prices are likely to stay firm, mint prices to move sideways, and PSA 10 prices for top M6 cards to stay weak because of the restock. For 30th CELEBRATION, whether reprint card prices hold after the October 16 Card Set release is our measure of whether the restock is being absorbed. The biggest uncertainty is when PSA resumes its low-cost plan. If the median premium falls below 4.19 times in the October 26 update, we will revise our view and treat the graded-led rebound as over.