Japanese Pokémon Card Topics on X This Week (October 14, 2026)

Data as of: our market data updated 05:45 JST, October 13, 2026; posts on X from October 8 to October 14, 2026. Figures are reference prices from third-party sales, not our selling prices. Our views are for reference only and are not investment advice.

This week’s topics

We read posts from October 8 to October 14 by the Japanese Pokémon card accounts on X that we follow, picked those about restocks, prices and sales, and grouped them into four topics. Posts are summarized here; follow each link for the original. Amounts quoted from posts are the posters’ own figures, not sale prices we have verified.

• Restocks of 30th CELEBRATION (M6a) and Storm Emeralda (M6) began reaching stores
• Sharp daily swings in 30th CELEBRATION cards, and their first PSA 10 sales
• A PSA 10 rebound that spread across our TOP100
• Pikachu PSA 10 copies: older cards recover, while posts report a newer card losing value

1. Restocks of 30th CELEBRATION (M6a) and Storm Emeralda (M6) begin

On X On October 8, @taibuppan reported that restocked Storm Emeralda (M6) and 30th CELEBRATION (M6a) products, which he had flagged the week before, were starting to arrive. The same day, @PokeGetInfoMain posted that the restock was beginning at card shops and electronics retailers that receive stock early, with the full rollout likely around the weekend. @gamegetnavi posted that stores of a major electronics retailer were selling 30th boxes, the Premium Deck Set and M6. On October 12 and 13, posts relayed announcements from a major electronics retailer and a major supermarket chain that restocked units would be sold by lottery (@Meisy_TCG_News, @PokeGetInfoMain). On M6, @torekaneki wrote on October 11 that boxes were trading at about ¥10,000.

Our data Box prices are not yet reflected in our market data. Release dates and contents are on our product pages for 30th CELEBRATION (M6a) and Storm Emeralda (M6).

Our view We think 30th CELEBRATION has started to move from a stage where it could not be bought to one where it can be found in stores. Sales reports from electronics and toy retailers kept coming because restocked units reached several sales channels at once. At the same time, posts relaying lottery announcements for restocked units show that demand still exceeds supply, rather than that the shortage is over. We read the post putting M6 boxes at about ¥10,000 as a sign that the scarcity premium M6 carried through September has largely gone. For box buyers: if lottery announcements thin out and only in-store sales reports remain within 2 weeks of the October 16 Card Set release, we will revise our view and treat 30th as entering the same premium-shrinking stage as M6.

2. Sharp swings in 30th CELEBRATION cards and their first PSA 10 sales

On X On the morning of October 8, @ZeniKame_Pokeca reported a broad drop in 30th card prices: ミュウ[M6a R/RGB] from ¥770,000 to ¥638,000 (-17.1%) and ミュウツーex SAR down 16.7%. The next morning, a post from the same account showed a rebound, with ミュウ from ¥638,000 to ¥750,000 (+17.6%) and ミュウツーex SAR up 22.9%. On October 12, @soluna100_chart reported that PSA 10 copies of 30th CELEBRATION cards had started to trade, with ミュウ R/RGB (red) at about ¥1.65 million across three sales and condition-A copies at about ¥700,000.

Our data Price moves for cards in 30th CELEBRATION are not yet reflected in our market data. Product contents and the release date are on our 30th CELEBRATION (M6a) product page.

Our view We think ミュウ swinging -17.1% one day and +17.6% the next reflects thin trading, where a few sales set the price, rather than a change in direction. Measured against the condition-A price of about ¥700,000 in the same post, the PSA 10 price of about ¥1.65 million is a smaller gap than the 4.46-times median PSA 10 premium in our TOP100. Because graded copies of a newly released card are only starting to come back, we think its premium will not open up as wide as on older cards. For collectors and submitters, PSA 10 prices are likely to fall from these first sales. If PSA 10 sales increase within 2 weeks of the October 16 Card Set release and still hold near ¥1.65 million, we will revise our view and conclude that demand for graded copies is deep.

3. The PSA 10 rebound spreads across our TOP100

On X On October 12, @soluna100_chart reported that its index for graded cards stood at 123.5 on October 11, after rising for eight straight days and then dipping slightly. In an October 8 roundup, @Zabi_pokeka posted that PSA 10 copies of 見返り美人ピカチュウ had recovered to the ¥550,000 range, and that an old-back ひかるミュウ traded at ¥1,000,000 even in PSA 9.

Our data In our TOP100 as of October 13, 71 cards had a positive 7-day PSA 10 change, 7 were negative and 22 were flat at ±0.00%, against 40, 33 and 27 a week earlier (October 6). Over 30 days, 90 cards were still negative, unchanged from the week before. In mint condition, 69 cards were flat over 7 days. The median PSA 10 premium over mint was 4.20 times on September 13, 3.91 times on October 6 and 4.46 times on October 13. For example, [ブラッキー&ダークライGX [SM12a 182/173]](/market/sm12a-182-173) has a PSA 10 price of ¥338,999 (+32.61% over 7 days, -20.71% over 30 days), while its mint price is ¥49,250 (±0.00% over 7 days, -31.84% over 30 days).

Our view We see this week’s rebound as led by graded cards, without mint prices following. Cards with a positive 7-day PSA 10 change rose from 40 to 71, while 69 cards were flat in mint, because buying went only into PSA 10 copies; that is why the median premium rose from 3.91 to 4.46 times, above the 4.20 times of September 13. The index gains reported in posts match our data, but 90 cards are still down over 30 days, so this is a recovery of earlier losses rather than a reversal. For collectors holding PSA 10 copies, it confirms the slide has stopped. If fewer than 40 cards show a positive 7-day PSA 10 change on October 27, we will revise our view and treat the move as temporary short covering.

4. Pikachu PSA 10 copies: older cards recover, a newer card slips

On X On October 8, @cY4wItenbl95537 wrote that the 見返りピカチュウ, originally around ¥50,000, did not fall below ¥400,000 this time, and that not all graded copies are in Japan, so higher prices in Japan do not necessarily pull copies back from overseas. In contrast, @mix_choice25809 posted on October 8 that PSA 10 copies of ピカチュウex FUR with consecutive certification numbers each sold for ¥200,000, but in a post the next day wrote that none had sold since, that the price looked set to fall below ¥100,000, and that the market level might be around ¥60,000–70,000.

Our data The Pikachu cards in these posts are not yet reflected in our market data. For comparison, the promo card [モクロー [290/SM-P]](/market/290-sm-p) has a PSA 10 price of ¥330,000 (+18.04% over 7 days, -27.84% over 30 days) and a mint price of ¥60,000 (±0.00% over 7 days, +7.54% over 30 days).

Our view We think Pikachu PSA 10 copies are not one market: they are splitting by how many graded copies circulate in Japan. The 見返りピカチュウ held above ¥400,000 likely because, as the post notes, part of its graded population is overseas and few copies are for sale at home. The newer ピカチュウex FUR is at the point where graded copies return in bulk, and prices are slipping because more copies are on offer. Our data point the same way: the promo モクロー rose 18.04% in PSA 10 over 7 days, consistent with buying in older graded cards. For overseas buyers and collectors: if a PSA 10 sale of ピカチュウex FUR near ¥200,000 is posted again within 2 weeks, we will revise our view and conclude that demand for the newer card remains.

What to watch next week

• Whether, after the October 16 release of the Card Set (9 types), lottery announcements for restocked 30th CELEBRATION (M6a) give way to plain in-store sales reports
• Whether PSA 10 prices for ミュウ R/RGB, reported at about ¥1.65 million, hold as more PSA 10 copies of 30th cards trade
• Whether the 71 cards with a positive 7-day PSA 10 change in our TOP100 hold up, and whether fewer flat mint prices show buying spreading to mint copies

Our overall view

We see the Japanese-edition market this week at a stage where more boxes are reaching stores through restocks while single cards recover, led by graded copies. The main driver is twofold: the restocks of 30th CELEBRATION (M6a) and Storm Emeralda (M6), which posts say began arriving on October 8, and the return of buying in PSA 10 copies. In our TOP100, 71 cards had a positive 7-day PSA 10 change and the median premium rose to 4.46 times, but 90 cards are still down over 30 days and mint prices have barely moved.

Over the next 2–4 weeks, we think PSA 10 prices for older sets and promo cards are likely to hold up, while boxes from restocked sets and 30th cards, both mint and PSA 10, are likely to struggle to rise. The biggest uncertainty is the October 16 Card Set release and the actual size of the restocks; no official quantities have been announced. If the median premium falls below the 3.91 times of October 6 on October 27, we will revise our view and conclude that buying in graded cards did not last.