Japanese Pokémon Card Market Weekly (October 2026, Week 3)

Data as of: our market data captured 22:26 JST, October 18, 2026; posts on X from October 13 to October 19, 2026. Figures are reference prices from third-party sales, not our selling prices. Our views are for reference only and are not investment advice.

This week in brief

• PSA 10: 70 cards in the TOP100 show a positive 7-day change and 8 a negative one, against 72 and 5 a week earlier. Over 30 days, 85 of the 100 are down (92 a week earlier).
• Mint: 21 cards up over 7 days, 9 down and 70 at ±0.00%.
• Seven cards entered the TOP100 and seven left it.

The week in our data

The tables below list the TOP100 cards with the largest 7-day changes as of October 18. A single sale can move the latest price sharply: mint マリオピカチュウ (294/XY-P) went from ¥50,000 on October 17 to ¥1,400,000 on October 18, lifting the card from 79th to 2nd.

All five PSA 10 risers are still down over 30 days, by 5.05% to 28.59%. PSA 10 for MリザードンEX (CP6 091/087) rose four days in a row: ¥480,000 on October 15, ¥560,000 on October 16, ¥589,800 on October 17 and ¥717,777 on October 18. All five mint fallers had a positive 7-day PSA 10 change (+1.56% to +7.13%). The median PSA 10 premium over mint across the TOP100 was 3.78 times on September 18, 4.33 times on October 11 and 4.46 times on October 18.

Four themes from posts on X

From the Japanese Pokémon card accounts on X that we follow, we picked posts from October 13 to October 19 about prices, restocks and sales, and grouped them into four themes. Posts are summarized; follow each link for the original.

1. 30th CELEBRATION after the Card Set release

On X @shoukinopokeka posted on October 16 that Card Set trades on release day were about three times the list price; the Kanto set fell from ¥5,500 to ¥3,500 (−36%) in two days, yet all nine types stayed above the ¥1,200 list price. On October 18, @ZeniKame_Pokeca wrote that the Card Set seemed to have added supply: the lowest listing for ミュウ R (RGB) fell from ¥820,000 to ¥680,000 (−17.1%) and both Pikachu SAR cards dropped by more than 10%, while the 30th anniversary box was roughly flat at ¥25,999.

Our data No 30th CELEBRATION card was among the seven new entries to the TOP100 on October 18, so the set is not yet reflected in our market data. The Card Set (9 types) was released on Friday, October 16, and 30th CELEBRATION (M6a) on Wednesday, September 16.

Our view We think 30th CELEBRATION singles fell while the box held because opening Card Set packs added supply of single cards first. In a normal restock cycle the box falls first; the posted figures show the reverse order, so we read this as an adjustment in singles rather than a break in the box. No 30th CELEBRATION card is in our TOP100 yet, so this view rests on posts. For collectors of singles prices are falling, while box buyers are so far less affected. If posts keep reporting the box slipping below ¥25,999 by November 1, we will revise our view.

2. PSA 10 gains hold, anniversary cards adjust

On X @Zabi_pokeka posted on October 14 that the ピカチュウ&ゼクロムGX SA in PSA 10 had reached ¥900,000 again. On October 18, by contrast, @ZeniKame_Pokeca reported that 10 of 14 25th anniversary cards in PSA 10 fell over the four days from October 14, with ミュウex 25th down 8.8%.

Our data In our TOP100, 70 cards are up and 8 down over 7 days in PSA 10, and cards down over 30 days fell from 92 to 85. The median premium rose from 4.33 to 4.46 times, while 70 mint prices were at ±0.00% over 7 days.

Our view Last week we said we would revise our view if fewer than half of the 72 risers were still up on October 19. The count is 70, so we think the rebound led by graded cards continues. The median premium rose to 4.46 times because buyers are paying up for PSA 10 while mint prices barely move. Posts report 25th anniversary PSA 10 cards falling, but only 8 cards in our TOP100 fell over 7 days, so we see an adjustment in specific lines rather than a reversal across graded cards. For collectors holding PSA 10 copies, prices remain supported. If the median falls below 4.33 times in the November 1 update, we will revise our view.

3. MEGA Dream ex (M2a) PSA 10 falls across the board

On X On October 18, @ZeniKame_Pokeca posted that all 15 PSA 10 cards and the box of MEGA Dream ex (M2a) were down from October 10, with メガカイリューex MUR −15.6%, メガゲンガーex SAR −13.4% and the box −4.4% (comparing lowest listings). Raw copies were flat or slightly up for some cards. On October 13, @Zone_Axie wrote that the MEGA Dream ex restock might pause after October 15.

Our data No M2a card appears in this week’s top-five tables. From Inferno X (M2), メガリザードンXex (M2 116/080) is ¥388,888 in PSA 10 (+18.0% over 7 days, -5.05% over 30 days) and ¥80,000 in mint (+18.64% over 7 days).

Our view We think M2a PSA 10 prices fell across the board while raw copies held because the restock increased openings and thinned the scarcity of graded copies. This is the stage of the restock cycle where the PSA 10 premium compresses, the opposite of the rise to 4.46 times in the median premium across our TOP100. Within the same MEGA line, M2 メガリザードンXex rose 18.0% in PSA 10 over 7 days, so we think whether a restock continues is what separates the two sets. For M2a box buyers and submitters, conditions are unfavorable. If the restock has paused as one post suggests, the decline is likely to narrow by November 1, 2 weeks from now. If posts report a resumed restock by then, we will revise our view.

4. Latest prices and what actually sold

On X On October 16, @shoukinopokeka posted an article arguing that the price shown in pricing apps is not the same as the price a card actually sells for, and that evening wrote that some cards are quoted as having a market price even with only four sales in 30 days.

Our data Mint マリオピカチュウ (294/XY-P) was ¥50,000 on October 17 and ¥1,400,000 on October 18. Mint ピカチュウ (288/SM-P) went from ¥450,000 on October 16 to ¥96,700 on October 17, and the card fell from 14th to 44th. Mint イーブイ (287/SM-P) went from ¥160,000 on October 17 to ¥49,800 on October 18.

Our view We think mint マリオピカチュウ jumped from ¥50,000 to ¥1,400,000 in a day because one sale replaced the latest price on a thinly traded promo card, rather than because demand changed. A post arguing that listed prices differ from what actually sells fits our TOP100, where 70 mint prices did not move over 7 days. For collectors of promo cards, we think trends in both PSA 10 and mint describe the market better than one price. We think most of this week’s sharp rank changes are likely the result of single sales. If mint マリオピカチュウ still holds 2nd place in the November 1 update, we will revise our view and treat it as a real change in demand.

What to watch next week

• 30th CELEBRATION singles after the Card Set release, and the box (¥25,999 in posts)
• How many cards are up over 7 days in PSA 10 (70 this week) and the median PSA 10 premium (4.46 times this week)
• PSA 10 prices and restock news for MEGA Dream ex (M2a)

Our overall view

We see the Japanese-edition market this week at a stage where graded older and promo cards keep recovering while singles from new products absorb added supply. In our TOP100, 70 cards are up over 7 days in PSA 10, close to 72 a week earlier; the median premium rose to 4.46 times, and cards down over 30 days fell from 92 to 85. The main driver is the thin supply of graded copies, with 70 mint prices flat over 7 days. According to posts, by contrast, 30th CELEBRATION singles and M2a PSA 10 prices are falling.

Over the next 2–4 weeks, we think PSA 10 prices for older sets and promos are likely to stay firm, while singles from 30th CELEBRATION and M2a continue to adjust. The biggest uncertainty is when new PSA 10 returns reach the market. If the median premium falls below 4.33 times in the November 1 update, we will revise our view and treat the graded-led rebound as over.