Japanese Pokémon Card Market Weekly (October 2026, Week 4)

Data as of: our market data updated 05:45 JST, October 25, 2026; posts on X from October 20 to October 26, 2026. Figures are reference prices from third-party sales, not our selling prices. Our views are for reference only and are not investment advice.

This week in brief

• PSA 10: 34 cards in the TOP100 show a positive 7-day change and 35 a negative one, against 70 and 8 a week earlier. Over 30 days, 62 of the 100 are down (85 a week earlier).
• Mint: 7 cards up over 7 days, 11 down and 82 at ±0.00% (14 up and 13 down a week earlier).
• Sixteen cards entered the TOP100 and sixteen left it, against seven each a week earlier.

The week in our data

The tables below list the TOP100 cards with the largest 7-day changes as of October 25. A single sale can move the latest price sharply: PSA 10 マリオピカチュウ (294/XY-P) went from ¥5,390,000 on October 23 to ¥3,990,000 on October 25.

Mint ミュウVMAX (s8 119/100) rose 7.03% over 7 days while its PSA 10 price fell 10.33%. The median PSA 10 premium over mint across the TOP100 was 2.41 times on September 25, 2.77 times on October 18 and 3.20 times on October 25. The premium figures in last week’s report were affected by the data import error corrected on October 25 and cannot be compared with this week’s.

Four themes from posts on X

From the Japanese Pokémon card accounts on X that we follow, we picked posts from October 20 to October 26 about prices, restocks and sales, and grouped them into four themes. Posts are summarized; follow each link for the original.

1. RGB ミュウ cards from 30th CELEBRATION enter the TOP100

On X On October 20, @ZeniKame_Pokeca posted that 12 of 16 30th CELEBRATION items fell; the next day it reported 10 of 16 rising, with ミュウ R (RGB) up 12.0% (both compare lowest listings). On October 22, @shoukinopokeka reported that PSA 10 trades in the FUR cards had started, with ミュウツーex FUR at ¥77,000 in PSA 10 and about ¥5,500 in grade A.

Our data Three RGB ミュウ cards from 30th CELEBRATION (M6a) entered the TOP100. ミュウ (M6a B/RGB) is 12th at ¥444,444 in mint (+23.59% over 7 days) and ¥2,450,000 in PSA 10; ミュウ (M6a R/RGB) is 18th at ¥640,000 in mint (-1.41% over 7 days) and ¥2,000,000 in PSA 10; ミュウ (M6a G/RGB) is 34th at ¥415,000 in mint and ¥810,300 in PSA 10. Each has only 4 to 7 PSA 10 sales on record.

Our view Posts show most 30th CELEBRATION items falling, yet three RGB ミュウ cards entered our TOP100, and mint B/RGB rose from ¥360,000 on October 20 to ¥444,444. We think this is because buyers stay with the scarce RGB cards even as supply grows, so we see the set moving into a split between RGB cards and ordinary cards rather than a uniform decline. The gap between listings and sales is still wide: posts put R (RGB) up 12.0%, while our mint price for it is down 1.41% over 7 days. For collectors of RGB cards, prices have support. If mint B/RGB falls below ¥360,000 in the November 1 update, we will treat this as a set-wide adjustment instead.

2. PSA 10 gains pause while the premium rises

On X On October 20, @shoukinopokeka cited a book stating that PSA’s cheapest plan rose from ¥4,980 to ¥11,980 per card (about 2.4 times), so low-priced cards become harder to submit and fewer new PSA 10 copies will reach the market. On October 21, by contrast, @MunPika_Pokemon argued that estimating a PSA 10 margin from today’s raw price plus grading costs is theory only, and that PSA 10 prices are likely to fall as supply grows.

Our data In our TOP100, 34 cards are up and 35 down over 7 days in PSA 10, so the number of risers halved from 70 (with 8 down) a week earlier. Cards down over 30 days fell from 85 to 62, and the median premium rose from 2.77 to 3.20 times.

Our view We think the count of PSA 10 risers fell from 70 to 34 because last week’s rebound used up the discount and the round of buying ran its course. The premium did not crack: the median rose from 2.77 to 3.20 times and cards down over 30 days fell from 85 to 62. One post expects more supply to push PSA 10 lower, but our data fits better with the other post’s view that higher grading fees will thin new PSA 10 supply, so we see a pause rather than a reversal. For submitters, costs are rising while the PSA 10 premium holds. If more than 50 cards are down over 7 days in the November 1 update, we will read it as a reversal rather than a pause.

3. The end of a restock and box listing prices

On X On October 21, @hatisan0909 posted that a pre-built deck product, whose restock may have ended, was back at its ¥891 list price, and that the gold メガリザードンYex fell from a peak of about ¥1.1 million to ¥250,000. On October 22, @ZeniKame_Pokeca reported that 15 of 16 boxes released in 2023 to 2025 rose against October 14 (comparing lowest listings).

Our data The gold メガリザードンYex in the post is numbered MC 766/742, and our TOP100 includes ピカチュウex (MC 764/742) with the same MC prefix. It is ¥84,000 in mint (-7.58% over 7 days, -22.91% over 30 days) and ¥206,334 in PSA 10 (-10.41% over 30 days), and it fell from 54th on October 17 to 86th on October 25.

Our view We think box listings rise first for products whose restock has stopped because sellers price in the end of new supply ahead of buyers. Our data shows the turn has not reached singles: MC ピカチュウex is still down 7.58% over 7 days and 22.91% over 30 days in mint. In a restock cycle, boxes stop falling first and singles later, so we see this as the last stage of the restock shock rather than a recovery across the line. Box buyers are seeing a floor, while collectors of singles are still in a decline. If mint ピカチュウex (MC 764/742) turns positive over 7 days in the November 1 update, we will read singles as having bottomed too.

4. Sixteen changes in the TOP100 and listing prices

On X On October 21, @ZeniKame_Pokeca reported that the lowest PSA 10 listing for メガゲンガーMA from MEGA Dream ex (M2a) rose from ¥6,250 to ¥9,000 (+44.0%) in the three days from October 18, while grade A raw copies stayed at ¥2,500, and noted that higher listings do not necessarily mean higher sale prices.

Our data Sixteen cards entered and sixteen left the TOP100, up from seven each a week earlier. イーブイ (287/SM-P) moved from 82nd to 30th and ブラッキーGX (125/SM-P) from 25th to 87th, yet both show a mint 7-day change of ±0.00%. Across the TOP100, 82 mint prices were at ±0.00% over 7 days.

Our view We think イーブイ (287/SM-P) rose 52 places and ブラッキーGX (125/SM-P) fell 62 while their mint 7-day changes stayed flat because, on thinly traded promo cards, the sales inside the comparison window changed. The post’s note that higher listings are not the same as higher sale prices fits our TOP100, where 82 mint prices did not move over 7 days. We read this week’s large rank moves as an artifact of few sales rather than a change in demand. For collectors of promo cards, PSA 10 and mint trends are a better guide than rank. If more than 10 cards still change in the November 1 update, we will consider whether sellers are increasing in the promo-heavy price range.

What to watch next week

• Whether mint ミュウ (M6a B/RGB) (¥444,444 this week) stays above ¥360,000, its October 20 level
• How many cards are down over 7 days in PSA 10 (35 this week) and the median PSA 10 premium (3.20 times this week)
• Whether mint ピカチュウex (MC 764/742) stops falling

Our overall view

We see the Japanese-edition market this week at a stage where the graded-card rebound has paused and 30th CELEBRATION has begun to split between RGB cards and ordinary cards. In our TOP100, PSA 10 risers halved from 70 to 34, yet the median premium rose from 2.77 to 3.20 times and cards down over 30 days fell from 85 to 62. The main driver is thinning new supply of graded copies, which matches posts on higher grading fees. Singles from restocked MC products, by contrast, are still falling.

Over the next 2–4 weeks, we think PSA 10 prices for older sets and promos are likely to move sideways, with RGB cards holding up within 30th CELEBRATION while ordinary cards keep adjusting. The biggest uncertainty is a further rise in 30th singles supply, as a post says staggered deliveries of the Card Set to a major convenience store chain begin on October 26. If the median premium falls below 2.77 times in the November 8 update, we will revise our view and treat the graded-card premium as broken.