Japanese Pokémon Card Topics on X This Week (October 21, 2026)

Data as of: our market data updated 10:00 JST, October 20, 2026; posts on X from October 15 to October 21, 2026. Figures are reference prices from third-party sales, not our selling prices. Our views are for reference only and are not investment advice.

This week’s topics

We read posts from October 15 to October 21 by the Japanese Pokémon card accounts on X that we follow, picked those about releases, restocks and prices, and grouped them into three topics. Posts are summarized here; follow each link for the original. Amounts quoted from posts are the posters’ own figures, not sale prices we have verified.

• The 30th CELEBRATION Card Set (9 types) went on sale, and first-day prices split by generation
• A trust problem around unopened Card Sets spread through secondary trading
• Box prices: Storm Emeralda (M6) back at ¥10,000 while テラスタルフェスex (SV8a) eased

1. The 30th CELEBRATION Card Set launch and first-day prices

On X On October 15, @KAZOO7a posted that for the Card Set (9 types) releasing the next day, major convenience store chains would stock only the first- and ninth-generation sets, on sale from 7:00 or 10:00 a.m. Around midday on October 16, @poke_map summarized that convenience stores in Kanto and Chubu kept reporting stock through the morning, while electronics retailers were starting to sell in Kinki. On prices, @Meisy_TCG_News reported on October 15 that a complete nine-type set last traded at ¥20,600, with フシギダネ・ヒトカゲ・ゼニガメ on top at ¥4,900. @Zabi_pokeka listed first-day prices at midnight on October 16: フシギダネ・ヒトカゲ・ゼニガメ ¥3,850, チコリータ・ヒノアラシ・ワニノコ ¥2,500, ナエトル・ヒコザル・ポッチャマ ¥2,150, キモリ・アチャモ・ミズゴロウ ¥2,000 and ツタージャ・ポカブ・ミジュマル ¥1,799. @takahiro_012 estimated that opening the 18 packs in nine sets gives about a 94.0% chance of at least one SAR or reprint card, and about 51.2% for both.

Our data Card Set prices are not yet reflected in our market data. Contents and the release date are on our Card Set (9 types) product page.

Our view We think Card Set prices are set by which generation of starter Pokémon a set features, rather than by the value of its packs. If nine sets hold 18 packs as the post says, the pack portion should not differ by type, yet first-day prices ranged from ¥3,850 for フシギダネ・ヒトカゲ・ゼニガメ to ¥1,799 for ツタージャ・ポカブ・ミジュマル, more than double. Because the first generation was stocked widely at convenience stores and still priced highest, the gap comes from collector demand for that generation. For collectors, the first-generation set is likely to keep a separate price tier. If it falls below ¥2,500 within 2 weeks of the October 16 release, we will revise our view and conclude that supply outweighed collector value.

2. A trust problem around unopened Card Sets

On X On the evening of October 16, @AkiPokemonLife warned that Card Sets with their contents removed had been found in secondary trading. The same day, @torekaneki wrote that because the nine-type set ships in a single dedicated carton, he had expected each set to promise specific pulls, but none was promised. On October 19, @matawarusasuru posted that after the problem came to light, buyers increasingly stopped purchasing unopened copies and some Japanese marketplaces paused listings, adding that even owners of genuine sets will find them hard to sell if buyers do not trust them.

Our data Prices related to this issue are not yet reflected in our market data.

Our view We think the secondary market for Card Sets now carries a trust discount, because an unopened set cannot be checked without opening it. Since even the nine-type set promises no specific pulls, being sealed no longer proves what is inside. One post called the Card Set finished; we see a discount limited to loose unopened sets whose origin is hard to confirm, rather than a collapse of the whole product. For box buyers and collectors, prices are likely to concentrate on nine-type sets still in the original shipping carton. If posts report buyers resuming purchases of unopened sets within 2 weeks, we will revise our view.

3. Box prices: Storm Emeralda (M6) at ¥10,000, テラスタルフェスex (SV8a) eases

On X In its box price update on the morning of October 19, @ZeniKame_Pokeca reported that Storm Emeralda (M6) recovered from ¥9,900 to ¥10,000, while テラスタルフェスex (SV8a), which had passed ¥20,000 the day before, fell from ¥21,000 to ¥20,000 (−4.8%). On the evening of October 20, テラスタルフェスex went on sale at the official online shop with a limit of one pack per person (@PokeGetInfoMain), and a post the same day said it had sold out (@pokecayoyaku). Another post said the same shop began selling ホワイトフレア (SV11W) on October 19, while ブラックボルト (SV11B) had sold out (@pokecayoyaku). On October 15, @gamegetnavi reported that official stores had started selling MEGA Dream ex (M2a).

Our data Box prices are not yet reflected in our market data. Release dates and contents are on our product pages for Storm Emeralda (M6) and MEGA Dream ex (M2a).

Our view We think the drop in テラスタルフェスex boxes from ¥21,000 to ¥20,000 was a pullback after a sharp rise, rather than an effect of the restock, because the October 20 restock on the official online shop was limited to one pack per person and, according to posts, sold out the same day, adding almost no boxes to the market. M6, back from ¥9,900 to ¥10,000, appears to have settled around ¥10,000 after its scarcity premium faded. For box buyers, restocks sold one pack at a time are likely to move box prices little. If テラスタルフェスex boxes fall below ¥20,000 within 2 weeks of the October 20 restock, we will revise our view and conclude the restock did weigh on prices.

What to watch next week

• Whether the first-generation set in the Card Set (9 types) stays above ¥2,500 and keeps its gap over other generations
• Whether buyers resume purchasing unopened Card Sets and paused listings return
• Whether the 19 cards with a negative 7-day PSA 10 change in our TOP100 increase, and whether the 6.13-times median premium holds

Our overall view

We see the Japanese-edition market this week at a stage where 30th CELEBRATION supply has spread to the Card Set, and trust in unopened product and the value of graded cards are moving apart. The main driver is the October 16 Card Set release and the trust problem that followed in secondary trading. In our TOP100 as of October 20, cards with a positive 7-day PSA 10 change fell from 71 to 59 and negative ones rose from 7 to 19, so the graded-card rebound has lost pace. The median premium rose from 4.46 to 6.13 times, but it covers 97 cards and 15 cards entered and left the TOP100, so part of the rise likely reflects composition.

Over the next 2–4 weeks, we think PSA 10 prices for promo and older cards are likely to hold firm, while loose unopened Card Sets are likely to struggle to rise. Mint trading is thin, with 71 cards flat over 7 days. The biggest uncertainty is when buyers resume purchasing unopened sets. If more than 30 cards show a negative 7-day PSA 10 change on October 27, we will revise our view and conclude the graded-card rebound has ended.