Japanese Pokémon Card Topics on X (October 28, 2026)

Data as of: our market data updated 05:45 JST, October 27, 2026; posts on X from October 22 to October 28, 2026. Figures are reference prices from third-party sales, not our selling prices. Our views are for reference only and are not investment advice.

This week’s topics

We read posts from October 22 to October 28 by the Japanese Pokémon card accounts on X that we follow, picked those about releases, restocks and prices, and grouped them into four topics. Posts are summarized here; follow each link for the original. Amounts quoted from posts are the posters’ own figures, not sale prices we have verified.

• 30th CELEBRATION (M6a) boxes show a small gap between shrink-wrapped and unwrapped copies, while store supply continues
• Regular Card Set (9 types) deliveries began at a major convenience store chain, while warnings about tampered sets continued
• The next expansion pack, ハドウシーカー (M7), was announced for November 27
• Posts on graded older cards and limited promos increased, while our data shows the PSA 10 rebound pausing

1. 30th CELEBRATION (M6a) box prices and supply

On X On October 22, @takahiro_012 estimated the expected value of opening one box of 30th CELEBRATION (M6a) at about ¥23,250 based on selling prices and about ¥12,000 based on buyback prices. The post names RGBミュウ as the largest contributor, about 25% on a selling-price basis, and argues that the box price of about ¥24,000–25,000 is unlikely to collapse. On October 26, @hatisan0909 noted that shrink-wrapped boxes start from ¥25,300 and unwrapped ones from ¥21,800, a gap of only ¥3,500. On supply, @shihandai_tcg0 posted on October 22 that regular deliveries were continuing at a major convenience store chain, and on the evening of October 23 @mirar_times summarized reports that buying at convenience stores had become easier than right after launch.

Our data 30th CELEBRATION box prices are not yet reflected in our market data. Contents and the release date are on our 30th CELEBRATION (M6a) product page.

Our view We think 30th CELEBRATION boxes are priced on the expected value of opening them rather than on their scarcity as sealed product. Because shrink-wrapped and unwrapped boxes differ by only ¥3,500, and the unwrapped ¥21,800 sits close to the selling-price expected value of about ¥23,250, buyers appear to treat boxes as something to open. With RGBミュウ accounting for about 25% of that value, the price of a single card is effectively setting the floor for box buyers. While regular convenience store deliveries continue, the premium on shrink-wrapped boxes is likely to narrow. If they can no longer hold about ¥25,000 within 2 weeks of the November 16 gummy release, we will read it as the premium squeeze moving into its middle stage.

2. Card Set (9 types) deliveries and the trust problem

On X On October 26, @shihandai_tcg0 posted that regular deliveries of the first- or ninth-generation Card Set (9 types) had begun at a major convenience store chain, with each store receiving only one Card Set and one expansion pack box, so stock may sell out quickly. On October 23, @takahiro_012 compared one expansion pack box (20 packs, list price ¥7,200) with 10 Card Set boxes (20 packs, list price ¥12,000) and estimated the same expected number of SAR and reprint cards in both. The same day, @poke_map quoted a card shop’s warning about sets brought in with packs removed, and wrote that Card Sets can now be bought with confidence only at list price in stores.

Our data Card Set prices are not yet reflected in our market data. Last week’s first-day prices are in our previous article.

Our view We think Card Set prices are now set by generation and by whether the origin is certain, rather than by expected pulls. If the expected number of hit cards equals that of an expansion box, as the post estimates, the roughly ¥5,000 higher list price is being paid for promo cards and the collector value of each generation. Regular convenience store deliveries cover the first and ninth generations, so the first generation, priced highest at launch last week, is likely to lose its premium first. Because warnings about tampered sets continue, collectors face a split between list-price store stock and secondary-market copies. If the first generation still holds ¥2,500 on October 30, two weeks after release, we will see collector value as outweighing the added supply.

3. The next expansion pack, ハドウシーカー (M7), announced

On X On October 23, @PokeGetInfoMain reported that the expansion pack ハドウシーカー will be released on November 27, with メガルカリオZ on the package, and @torekaneki quoted the official announcement the same day. On October 24, @poke_map summarized the revealed cards: メガルカリオZ ex as the headliner, joined by メガガブリアスZ ex, メガアブソルZ ex and シンボラーex. On October 25, @lira_tcg compiled the top 20 Japanese-edition ルカリオ cards by PSA grading count. On October 23, @hatisan0909 speculated that FUR cards, introduced in 30th CELEBRATION, may also appear in regular sets, while noting that the attached image could not be confirmed as genuine.

Our data ハドウシーカー (M7) has not been released and is not yet reflected in our market data. In our TOP100 as of October 27, cards with a negative 7-day PSA 10 change rose from 19 the previous week to 37, and positive ones fell from 59 to 23.

Our view We think the ハドウシーカー (M7) announcement was one of the triggers that shifted interest from graded older cards toward the new set, because in the week that included the October 23 announcement, cards in our TOP100 with a negative 7-day PSA 10 change rose from 19 to 37. Increased supply of 30th CELEBRATION products overlapped with the same period, so we treat a rotation of money as one possibility rather than a conclusion. Even with posts discussing ルカリオ grading counts, sales of older cards are likely to move only as the release nears. For collectors, the test is this: if the 13 cards with a negative 7-day mint change increase in the 2 weeks before the November 27 release, rotation is likely under way.

4. Graded older cards and limited promos

On X On October 24, after a buyback list drew attention, @lira_tcg researched total PSA grading counts and PSA 10 counts for 40 limited promos that never came in packs, noting that some have no PSA 10 copies at all. On October 25, @mix_choice25809 reported that a Carddass ピカチュウ graded PSA 7 sold for ¥120,000, up from ¥66,500 nine days earlier. On October 27, @hatisan0909 questioned a listing on a Japanese marketplace offering two ピカチュウ cards for ¥750,000, suggesting card shops price the same pair at around ¥150,000.

Our data In our data, イーブイ (287/SM-P) mint is ¥245,000, +16.67% over 7 days and −0.16% over 30 days; PSA 10 is ¥975,000, −1.01% over 7 days and +5.36% over 30 days. ブラッキー (188/BW-P) is ¥45,000 for mint and ¥815,926 for PSA 10, ±0.00% over both 7 and 30 days. The median PSA 10 premium over mint was 3.17 times on October 27, 3.19 times on October 20 and 2.34 times on September 27.

Our view We think graded older cards and limited promos have paused after their rise rather than started to fall. Cards with a negative 7-day PSA 10 change increased, but the median premium barely moved, from 3.19 to 3.17 times, and remains well above 2.34 times on September 27, because buyers are still paying for grading scarcity. Posts focus on low PSA 10 counts, while ブラッキー (188/BW-P) in our data shows ±0.00% over both 7 and 30 days, which we read as trades on hold, not stable prices. For collectors and submitters, the premium itself is intact. If the median falls below 3.00 times on November 3, we will read it as the start of a premium squeeze.

What to watch next week

• Whether the first-generation Card Set (9 types) still holds ¥2,500 on October 30, two weeks after release
• Whether shrink-wrapped 30th CELEBRATION (M6a) boxes hold about ¥25,000, and whether the November 16 gummy release adds to supply talk
• Whether the 37 cards with a negative 7-day PSA 10 change in our TOP100 increase, and whether the 3.17-times median premium holds

Our overall view

We see the Japanese-edition market this week at a stage where 30th CELEBRATION supply has become routine through regular store deliveries, and the rebound in graded cards has paused. The main driver is 30th CELEBRATION supply, together with the announcement of ハドウシーカー (M7) for November 27. In our TOP100 as of October 27, cards with a positive 7-day PSA 10 change fell from 59 to 23, while cards down over 30 days fell from 81 to 51, and the 3.17-times median premium remains above 2.34 times on September 27.

Over the next 2–4 weeks, we think PSA 10 prices for older cards are likely to move sideways, while the premium on shrink-wrapped 30th CELEBRATION boxes is likely to narrow gradually. The biggest uncertainty is whether money moves from older cards to the new set before M7 is released. If the median premium falls below 3.00 times on November 10, we will revise our view and conclude that the premium for graded cards itself has started to shrink.