Japanese Pokémon Card Market Weekly (November 2026, Week 1)

Data as of: our market data updated 05:45 JST, November 1, 2026; posts on X from October 27 to October 31, 2026. Figures are reference prices from third-party sales, not our selling prices. Our views are for reference only and are not investment advice.

This week in brief

• PSA 10: 32 cards in the TOP100 show a positive 7-day change and 31 a negative one, against 34 and 35 a week earlier. Over 30 days, 26 of the 100 are down (62 a week earlier).
• Mint: 11 cards up over 7 days, 9 down and 80 at ±0.00% (7 up and 11 down a week earlier).
• Two cards entered the TOP100 and two left it, against sixteen each a week earlier.

The week in our data

The tables below list the TOP100 cards with the largest 7-day changes as of November 1. A single sale can move the latest price sharply: PSA 10 マリオピカチュウ (294/XY-P) went from ¥3,990,000 on October 29 to ¥5,200,000 on October 30 and ¥5,350,000 on October 31.

Mint リーリエ (080/SM-P) fell 11.11% over 7 days while its PSA 10 price rose 14.89%. Mint ゲンガー&ミミッキュGX (SM9 103/095) went from ¥150,000 on October 30 to ¥300,000 on October 31, a move driven by a single sale. The median PSA 10 premium over mint across the TOP100 was 2.18 times on October 2, 3.20 times on October 25 and 3.46 times on November 1.

Four themes from posts on X

From the Japanese Pokémon card accounts on X that we follow, we picked posts from October 27 to October 31 about prices, grading and sales, and grouped them into four themes. Posts are summarized; follow each link for the original.

1. The gap between RGB and ordinary cards widens in 30th CELEBRATION

On X On October 27, @shoukinopokeka posted that grade A ジラーチex SAR from 30th CELEBRATION had dropped from ¥4,000 in launch week to ¥1,800, about half, with ミュウツーex SAR and ニンフィアex SAR around 40% lower. The same day, @ZeniKame_Pokeca reported the box falling from ¥25,800 to ¥25,000 (-3.1%), and @Zabi_pokeka noted that shops had started buying 30th PSA 10 cards.

Our data All three RGB ミュウ cards from 30th CELEBRATION (M6a) stayed in the TOP100. ミュウ (M6a R/RGB) is 14th at ¥2,360,000 in PSA 10 (+14.71% over 7 days); ミュウ (M6a B/RGB) is 13th at ¥492,500 in mint (+8.18% over 7 days); ミュウ (M6a G/RGB) rose from 34th to 21st, at ¥350,000 in mint and ¥1,650,000 in PSA 10. Each has only 5 to 9 PSA 10 sales on record.

Our view Posts show grade A 30th CELEBRATION SAR cards at around half their launch-week prices and the box slipping, while our data shows all three RGB ミュウ cards staying in the TOP100 and PSA 10 R/RGB up 14.71% over 7 days. We think ordinary cards fall because opening keeps adding supply, while RGB cards draw buyers because so few exist. We see the set at a stage of deepening polarization rather than a set-wide decline. Collectors of RGB cards still have support, while box buyers face a lower expected value per box. If mint B/RGB drops below ¥444,444 in the November 8 update, we will treat the split as having run its course.

2. The grading backlog shrinks while the premium still rises

On X On October 27, @ZeniKame_Pokeca cited PSA’s official figures showing the grading backlog falling from 10.9 million cards on August 25 to 7.2 million on October 20. At the current pace, the post calculates, the backlog would reach 5 million, seen as the threshold for reopening the low-cost plan, around November 20, while cautioning that it may not follow the simple math.

Our data The median PSA 10 premium over mint in our TOP100 kept rising: 2.18 times on October 2, 3.20 times on October 25 and 3.46 times on November 1. PSA 10 7-day changes split 32 up and 31 down, much the same as the week before.

Our view We think the median premium rose from 3.20 to 3.46 times because the grading queue is still long, which delays new PSA 10 copies reaching the market. The shrinking backlog in the post has not yet shown up as a lower premium in our data. Rather than a sudden flood of PSA 10 copies once the queue clears, we think returns will arrive in stages, so the premium is likely to narrow slowly. For submitters, the current premium may not hold once returns pick up. If the low-cost plan reopens around November 20, as the post estimates, and the median falls below 3.20 times within 2 weeks after that, we will read it as the start of a narrowing premium.

3. PSA 10 promo cards recover from their lows

On X On October 30, @shoukinopokeka posted that PSA 10 prices for three Pikachu promo cards, including the birthday Pikachu, had recovered more than 20% from their September to early October lows and had settled somewhat over the past week. It put the birthday Pikachu at ¥80,000 in PSA 10.

Our data In our TOP100, 67 cards show a positive 30-day PSA 10 change and 26 a negative one, against 30 and 62 a week earlier. Promo cards led the 7-day PSA 10 risers: リーリエ (080/SM-P) (+14.89%), フウロ (164/XY-P) (+13.22%) and ピカチュウ (288/SM-P) (+7.91%). In mint, 80 prices were at ±0.00% over 7 days.

Our view We think cards down over 30 days fell from 62 to 26 because selling ran out during the fall from September to early October and buyers returned to PSA 10 promo cards. The post reporting that Pikachu promos recovered more than 20% from their lows fits the PSA 10 gains in our TOP100 for 080/SM-P and 288/SM-P. Mint prices tell a different story: 80 were at ±0.00% over 7 days, so the recovery is concentrated in graded copies. We see a repair limited to PSA 10 rather than a broad recovery across the TOP100. For collectors holding PSA 10 promos, the decline has stopped. If more than 20 mint prices are up over 7 days in the November 8 update, we will read buying as spreading to mint cards.

4. Restocked MC singles turn up

On X On October 28, @shoukinopokeka posted that PSA 10 prices for three high-value cards, including メガリザードンYex (MC 766/742), had fallen to about half their summer levels, putting that card at ¥964,000 in PSA 10 and ¥380,000 in grade A. On October 27, @ZeniKame_Pokeca reported that PSA 10 cards from MEGA Dream ex (M2a) mostly fell over the three days from October 24 to 27 (comparing listings).

Our data In our TOP100, ピカチュウex (MC 764/742), with the same MC prefix, went from ¥84,000 in mint on October 25 to ¥94,733 on November 1 (+11.35% over 7 days, -17.66% over 30 days). Its PSA 10 price is ¥204,500 (-1.68% over 7 days), and it moved from 86th to 88th.

Our view Last week we said we would read singles as having bottomed if mint ピカチュウex (MC 764/742) turned positive over 7 days, and on November 1 it was up 11.35%. We think this is because opening slows once a product stops being restocked, so selling in singles thins as well. The post puts PSA 10 prices at about half their summer level, and in our data the PSA 10 price of ピカチュウex is still down 1.68% over 7 days. We see a stage where mint has stopped falling first, rather than a rebound. For collectors of singles, the decline has paused. If mint drops below ¥84,000 in the November 8 update, we will treat the rise as temporary.

What to watch next week

• Whether mint ミュウ (M6a B/RGB) (¥492,500 this week) stays above ¥444,444, its October 25 level
• The median PSA 10 premium (3.46 times this week) and the number of mint cards up over 7 days (11 this week)
• Whether mint ピカチュウex (MC 764/742) (¥94,733 this week) stays above ¥84,000

Our overall view

We see the Japanese-edition market this week at the late stage of repair after the restock shock, with the graded-card premium coming back. In our TOP100, PSA 10 cards down over 30 days fell from 62 to 26, and the median premium kept rising: 2.18 times on October 2, 3.20 times on October 25 and 3.46 times on November 1. The main driver is the slow arrival of new PSA 10 copies, which matches posts on the grading backlog. In mint, 80 prices did not move over 7 days, and the recovery is concentrated in PSA 10 promo cards, the RGB cards of 30th CELEBRATION and MC singles whose restock has stopped.

Over the next 2–4 weeks, we think PSA 10 prices are likely to hold firm and the median premium is likely to stay above 3.20 times. The biggest uncertainty is the reopening of the low-cost grading plan, which a post estimates for around November 20; more returns would shrink the premium. If the median falls below 3.20 times in the November 22 update, we will revise our view and treat the graded-card repair as over.